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Archive for the ‘Manufacturers’ Category

Are the intrests of the auto industry being best served?

Monday, May 4th, 2009

The Chrysler Bankruptcy is pushing private creditors into a head on collision with the government and the government backed companies. What plays out in New York’s bankruptcy court will largly determine the direction General Motors, and our industry heads.  Will the government keep the playing field level and let the markets rebuild themselves naturally from here, or force their hand to achieve some predefined objective?

President Obama delivered a great speech when he announced that Chrysler would seek Chapter 11 protection.  Despite announcing some really bad news, he kept things very positive and encouraged the public to buy American.  The largest problem facing Chrysler has been, and still is, a steep decline in consumer confidence. The president should be commended for attacking that head on.  However, he ripped a small group of Chrysler creditors for not settling their debt according to the government’s recommendation and thus laying balme on them for forcing Chrysler into Bankruptcy. The media has picked up on that and kept the public beating going, claiming these groups were actng selfishly and even in an "unamerican" way.  Is their condemnation justified?

The creditors being slammed were part of a group of secured creditors owed 6.9 billion, meaning in the event of a BK they are legally to be paid out first.  The government offered them about 30 cents on the dollar to walk away.  Yet the UAW, an unsecured creditor owed 10.6 billion, was given a 55% ownership stake in the new Chrysler and a payout over time of almost half their debt.  People are crying foul; saying that the government is favoring the UAW, a huge supporter of the administration, by illegally moving them to the front of the line and giving them more than their fair share.  Is the UAW being given special treatment?  Perhaps the bigger question is how can we expect the government be a fair moderator and do what is best for our industry when they have converging political and economic interests based on the outcome of the negotiation? 

To further complicate matters, these condemned creditors are also arguing they have been kept out of the government discussion because they are the only party that isn’t tied to the government.  The situation is not as simple as the creditors vs. the UAW fighting for Chryslers assets with the government in he middle.  Sure, the government is playing moderator in the middle, but are they really in the middle? In addition to playing moderator the government is also a direct creditor, Chrysler shareholder, they have political interests to protect the UAW, and have substantial funds (90 billion to be exact) invested in the other banks that have outstanding debt to Chrysler.  Given their broad involvement in the situation, which of their many conflicting motivations will prevail and again, what is best for our industry?

Here are a couple other messy situations:

With the UAW becoming the largest shareholder in Chrysler and selecting one or two of its board members, will they do what is in the best interest for their workers or for the company as a whole?  Sometimes it is in the best interest of the company to cut workforce, use outsourcing or leverage technology to make the company more scalable, all things the union hates.  How will a Union who has proven their sole motive is to benefit its workers even at the cost of the company, help run Chrysler any better?  Who will the union blame now when they have a problem? Themselves?  Would Chrysler be better off without the unions like the imports?

With GM under government control, the fate of Saturn’s employees and dealers are resting in their hands. Will the government be willing to save the jobs by letting a foreign competitor like Renault take over the Saturn brand even if it means creating a GM competitor in the process? On one hand they want to preserve American jobs, but on the other hand they want to protect their newly acquired company.  Cliff Banks of Wards Auto wrote a great article on this conundrum.

It appears as though the free fall in our economy has stopped, and the government has played a big role in that.  However, is the current situation set up to create the most innovative and robust industry going forward?  I’m not sure it is.  

Could you imagine being an NFL quarterback playing in the Super Bowl against a government backed team, with a government referee and with some of your own teammates on government payroll?  The competitive spirit is dampened when it feels like the outcome is decided ahead of time; and unfortunately it’s the competitive spirit that produces the real MVPs.

 

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Preparing your store for a Chrysler or GM Bankruptcy

Monday, April 27th, 2009

Preparing for a Chrysler or GM bankruptcy is an ugly thought that nobody wants to discuss.  However, if you are prepared for such an incident you could save your store hundreds of thousands of dollars.

If your manufacturer does file BK, your dealership will be hit in two main ways.  First, consumer confidence will fall, making the bankrupt franchise’s products harder to sell and sending ripples through the retail and wholesale markets.  Second, your dealership’s cash flow will be significantly altered in the form of holdback, incentive, warranty and other payments that are owed your store.

Here are some tips I recommend to shield your dealership form the worst.

Manage your cash position daily

Typically a weekly cash meeting is sufficient, but today as a GM you must be looking at the appropriate schedules daily to insure the dealership has as much cash in the system as possible.

A cash meeting is a time when the department heads get together with the GM or Principle to review all the receivable schedules for each department and make sure the cash is being collected.  You should look at your holdback, incentive, finance, and other receivables due the variable ops.  Also discuss your open RO’s, SOP, Warranty receivables and any outstanding commercial accounts in your Parts and Service Departments.  The objective of the meeting is to turn these receivables to cash and to remove any obstacle in the way of collecting your money.

In the event of a Manufacturer BK you will need all the cash you can get to weather the short-term crisis. Free up as much cash as possible now, before the storm hits.

Wholesale inventory

The most likely market effect once a manufacturer files BK is that their vehicles will experience a step drop in value.  If you are a ford dealer that typically stocks a few Chevy’s, it may be time to rethink that strategy for the short run.  If you are holding the vehicles when the BK happens you stand to lose a significant amount of money.  On the other hand, buying that inventory after a BK does present other risks, however it will insure you are buying after the price drops, putting you in a much more favorable position.

Submit Warranty claims daily

After filing BK the manufacturer may delay, reduce or stop all together (for a time period) its payment on warranty claims.  Dont let warranty repairs sit idle in your shop, get the work complete while the OEM is still paying. Once the work is complete, process your warranty claims daily.  The faster you get these claims approved and in the system to get paid, the less risk you will have. 

Process incentive receivables daily

Like warranty receivables, the faster you can process car deals and get your rebate, dealer cash and other incentive claims in the system and paid, the less risk you will have in an OEM default situation.  If there are reasons for the OEMs to deny rebate claims, they will.  Insure the sales team collects any documentation needed at the time of sale to process all student, business and other speciality rebate claims.

Pitch interest rates, not rebates

The manufacturers usually offer the choice of a special interest rate or a rebate for the consumer to choose from.  Often, the difference in payments to the customer is minimal.  When possible steer the consumer to the financing option, not the rebate.  The reason is that the dealership floats the rebate to the customer and waits for the manufacturer to reimburse them. By selecting the financing option, you avoid the risk of another incentive the manufacturer may not pay.  It puts the store in a much better cash position when the consumer takes the special financing.

Create your contingency plan now

How will your company strategy evolve and change in this tragic, but possible event?  Will you switch your focus to being a used vehicle dealer?  What niches/car lines will you focus in?  How will you position your marketing?

By thinking about the tough issues now you can more successfully navigate the stormy waters when they come.  Every good business strategist has multiple plans. You should to.  Committ these plans to writing so you have them fresh on paper in the event they are needed.

Meet with your flooring source

Your floor plan company has a very vested interest in the viability of your dealership since they have millions of dollars loaned to.  If they see on the morning news that your manufacturer has filed for bankruptcy, they will immediately question ability to honor your flooring agreement.  They will call a meeting with you and want to know what is happening in your business.  Many stores are already dealing with audits at an increased frequency.  The last thing you need is your flooring line to be called.

Be proactive.  You should have a contingency plan as to how you will navigate the difficult waters.  Put this plan in writing and take your banker to lunch.  Talk it over with them, let them know you are a good client and will continue to be even in the event of an OEM BK.  By letting them know you are prepared ahead of time, you will avoid additional headaches at a time when you need to focus on leading your store.

Our industry is changing.  Sometimes it is difficult to look up form the day to day grind of running a business to look into the future and strategize on theory’s that may never come to pass.  Most actions needed to prepare for a manufacturer BK are things you should be doing anyways and in the event of a market disruption 5 hours of preparation will save you 30 hours of headache.  Nobody can tell the future to know if something like this will happen and how the market will react.  Sometimes "being prepared" for probable options is the best thing we can do.

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Everybody thinks they are an auto industry expert.

Monday, February 23rd, 2009

Sorry, but I have to RANT a bit.  I just read an article by a VC who totally misunderstands the issues our industry is facing. As usual, I experienced the run of emotions when I read the post, but ended up somewhat fired up.  People just dont get it.

I do typically start out intrigued when I see successful business people criticize our industry and offer solutions. I believe we would be wise to look for outside influence in these times of reinvention. Then I chuckle a bit because these brilliant people are often in left field as to our industry’s struggles.  This particular article argues the wrong reasons why Steve jobs could be the savior of the industry.  I contemplate the proposed solutions, fear sets in, then anger becasue this type of ignorance could really do some great damage.  There is a good chance congressional leaders and the Obama task force think the same way, or be influenced by these other wise successful people, but in the end if they greatly misunderstand our industry it increases our odds of having a lunatic driver steering the re-engineering of our industry. 

Our domestic industry is in a short term slump that people are mistaking as the real pain of the industry. We are in an economic downturn, (yes an unprecedented one) and thus sales are lower and capital is tighter than usual.  However lower sales numbers and capital availability are problems not unique to the Detroit 3, they are relative across the board for domestic and import companies.  That argument is a short term problem we face, but not the underlying cause of our frailty.  I believe today’s sales numbers are an acute pain disguising the chronic business model and cost structure problems we have.  Most often people argue that the domestics don’t build cars that people want to buy; this is a horribly short sighted argument.  If people didnt want to by the domestic products, why do they sell?  The question should be why can Honda be profitable and not GM when GM outsells Honda hands down?  The answer is simple.  Honda’s cost structures and business models are in line with their business strategy.  If the nations sales numbers would climb back up to 15 or 16 million today the domestics would still be in hot water because they are not competitive for the long run.

To alter their cost structures they will have to:

a) Renegotiate with the UAW and reduce/eliminate legacy costs and put the current costs in line with the market.  They are carrying too much weight and it looks like negotiations are not moving along too well meaning CH 11 is very likely on the horizon.

b) There are too many dealers.  GM and Toyota sell very similar volumes of cars.  However GM does it with about 6500 dealers, Toyota does it with less than 1500 dealers.  It costs money to service those extra 5000 dealerships, especially considering they do so with duplicate products.

Our industry is seriously bloated with overcapacity, the invisible hand of the free markets will trim that. The situation we dealers face is not pretty.  I come from a long family legacy of car dealers so it hurts me at the core to say it, but the facts speak for themselves.The domestic auto industry is antiquated and needs to take two steps back so it can take three steps forward.  It will do so with less dealers.

The manufacturers DON’T need all new product engineering.  They need new manufacturing and distribution models.  That is how they will reinvent so that we can stay ahead.  Our industry has some breaking down to do so that we can rebuild.

Many dealerships and dealership employees are fighting for survival in a very literal sense.  Dont be a casuality of the restructuring.  Each dealer should have his store in order.  Each professional should be getting their house in order.  You need to be learning new disciplines, honing old skills, and networking all you can.  Our industry will NOT go away, but it will change and contract. 

Those with the innovative skills and the connectivity to put them to work have a great opportunity as the industry evolves through these exciting, yet scary times.  Those resting on their laurels may fall victim to the restructuring of our industry.  I hope the Govt can steer the restructuring ship so as to avoid a huge domino effect of collapsing companies. Regardless of how it goes down, work to get ahead of the game now and you will be fine in the long run.

 

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The Cause of the Crisis.

Sunday, November 30th, 2008

With so much hupla over potential for a government bailout pundits and politicians are quick to point an ignorant finger at the many wrong reasons that placed us in this mess to begin with. Few if any, are discussing the historic facts at the core of the domestic automakers current crisis.  The industry was set up right, but has been locked in and unable, not just unwilling, to change their now antiquated business model & structure.

The domestic automakers were born in the very early 1900’s, they weren’t started IN the industrial age, the WERE the industrial age.  These companies grew rapidly into becoming the economic engine that fueled America’s great growth.  To serve the population dealerships were needed in every community for sales and service.  This industry revolutionized the economic world as well as the social world.  Cars made travel affordable and efficient, keeping people connected and making the world a smaller place much like social networks of today.


In the 50’s and 60’s the interstate highway system was built out, to the pleasing of the auto industry lobbyists.  With easer means of travel the need for cars increased, but so did competition, which severely eroded dealership margins.

Honda and Toyota didn’t enter the US market until this time, and really didn’t gain significant traction until the 1980’s.  Because their infrastructure was built out decades later and in a completely different economic era, their businesses structures are very different than the domestic’s.  Most notably they have far fewer dealers, especially when looked at the ratio of dealers to car sales.  Also, they are also not weighed down by the UAW, which was formed in 1936 (however smaller unions date back to the late 1800’s.)  Global competition has caught up to the American factory worker and these corporations can no longer afford to pay the benefits afforded through the past century given global competition.

Letting these plants move over seas should be out of the question, despite the potential short-term benefit.  Out-sourcing the domestic’ manufacturing would be a national security disaster.  During the past Word Wars the auto plants we converted to building tanks, planes and other vehicles for the military. Could you imagine if WWIII ever happened and we had to outsource our military vehicles to china?  YEA RIGHT!

There is no doubt the industry has some pains ahead of it as it goes through a much needed correction but there is a silver lining to this gray cloud.  Restructuring (even with a Chapter 11 reorganization of some sort) could provide some HUGE long-term benefits to the US auto industry.  Even though the industry is changing and that is painful, it must look at it as an opportunity. New business models could sprout creating a wide array of benefits for those inside the industry and those that consume our products and services.  There is lots of uncertainty in the market right now.  However, one thing is certain, as long as American ingenuity and entrepreneurship is alive and well the domestic industry will survive and reinvent itself into the world wide powerhouse that it was and deserves to be.
 

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Overcoming the General Motors Objection

Friday, November 14th, 2008

Recently General Motors announced it’s running dangerously low on cash and could run out in the next couple months with out the governments help.  They need 11-14 billion in cash reserves to run the daily operations of their giant company and are expected to end this year with 12.5 billion available.  This is a thin margin to be running a company on of this size; especially this is a difficult market to be forecasting in.  

What is the 11-14 billion for?  It’s the cash needed to run the company on a daily basis, akin to the working capital a dealer needs to made debt payments, pay off trades as they come in, discount for rebates and wait 30-60 days for the OEMs to reimburse them and to make payroll while waiting for car deals to be funded.  If this money runs out, there will not be enough to make their payments to their creditors, including potentially employees.  They will be forced to seek bankruptcy protection so they can try and renegotiate their obligations with others.  
In a good market General Motors would borrow funds, but in today’s climate, and with their declining capacity to pay against their current obligations its has made that reality a near impossibility.  In other words General Motors is just like the customer who comes to your dealership to trade in their car to lower their payment.  Unfortunately they are so far upside down, it would be extremely difficult to lower the payment to begin with, and if you could find a car cheap enough, the value of the collateral isn’t enough for a bank to cover the negative equity of the trade.  In other words their DTI is too high and they can’t get the advance.

So what are they left to do?  Like the buried customer who goes to mom and dad to borrow money for the down payment, General Motors (and the others) are petitioning the federal government for some help.  This is where politics get involved, (this isn’t meant to be a political post so ill just generalize here.)  The right (republican side) favors little government, and little intervention.  The company reaps what it sows, good or bad and the market remains more “pure.”  The left (or democratic side) generally pushes for the government to get involved and support the workers.  Both sides have good and bad implications, especially in this scenario (generally picking a side is based on what “goods” you feel are stronger and what “bads” you feel are worse.)

What do I think will happen?  Well right about now I’m not so sure the politicians can come to an agreement in time as to what is best for our nation.  One side says bail them out, the others counter that will raise taxes.  One side says if you don’t bail them out the pain will be greater on the public than the raise in taxes would… and the politics go round and round.  At this stage I think most on each side are in agreement the industry needs help, it’s the details they are fighting over. If the fighting isn’t resolved, the support may come but too late for bankruptcy. GM will file, and begin to restructure, similar to united airlines over the last few years.  GM will stay around, and go through some very radical changes, but they will survive.   To me the biggest variable will be how the public reacts.  If the media blows this thing way out of proportion it may taint the buyers opinion of buying with concerns about “will my warranty be valid?” “Will there be parts when its time for a service?”  The answer is yes they will be here, (bet GM reemerges, but as a very different company) the biggest challenge the dealership will be up against is customer perception.  The perception will be based on the media, and your sales people.

Perception is reality, I don’t write this article to be doomsy or circulate the negative info.  In fact I hesitate to publish this at all, but I think its important that the people on the front lines who are focused where they should be, “on making deals” understand what is happening so they can respond to customers in a non political, understanding way.  Your customers have some wild ideas running around in their heads right now and the sales people must be trained to handle the questions and over-come the objections they are facing.

I often train that objections are the keys to the car deal.  Build value, a relationship and seek out and solve your customer’s objection; that is how you sell.  I hope this summary helps someone out there in “reader land” better explain what is happening to the market the next time a customer asks.  If you cant answer your customers questions, or respond with, “I don’t follow that stuff much” you will not be breeding confidence with your customer.  

Sales people need to understand the industry is going through some painful corrections and may morph and evolved, but its not going anywhere.  The auto industry is changing and in this environment knowledge is power.  Keep your team current on the facts, and motivated to win. It’s a tall order, but we didn’t become the backbone to our nations economy for nothing.

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Ford’s restructuring

Tuesday, August 14th, 2007

Having just finished a wholesale with Ford, their restructuring is fresh on my mind. I cant speak for the GM dealers; but as a Ford dealer I’m seeing first hand that (more…)

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