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EVs On The Road To Triple By 2020

May 30, 2018 0 Comments


According to a report released by the International Energy Agency on Wednesday, the amount of electric vehicles on the roads could triple to 13 million by 2020, with sales potentially rising 24 percent on average each year through 2030.

The Paris-based institution’s findings show how quickly the industry is shifting towards cleaner fuels, with various governments working hard to limit pollution and greenhouse gas emissions. Currently, Tesla Inc. and Nissan Motor Co. have the most recognizable EVs on the road, but automakers like Volkswagen AG, General Motors Co., and Audi AG are following hot on their heels with announcement for battery-powered models.

“The dynamic policy developments that are characterizing the electric car market are expected to mobilize investments in battery production, facilitating cost reductions and ensuring that battery production takes place at scales that exceed significantly what has been seen so far,” said IEA senior energy and transport analyst Pierpaolo Cazzola.

Some of the report’s key findings are:

  • China will remain the largest market: EVs are estimated to make up just over a quarter of vehicles sold in China, up 2.2 percent from 2017. Additionally, the government has implemented policies to encourage EVs in an effort to cut down air pollution in smog-heavy cities.
  • EVs will displace oil from the market: Batteries for the electrified vehicles are charged by power plants, not gas or diesel. According to Bloomberg, with “an estimated 130 million light-duty vehicles expected on the world’s roads by 2030, the IEA estimates about 2.57 million barrels of oil per day won’t be needed.” Last year, the global EV fleet displaced around 380,000 barrels of oil a day – about equal to half of Belgium’s oil consumption.
  • Governments may need to find a new source for tax revenue: by 2030, governments could lose between $42 billion and $92 billion from road fuel sales. In 2017, China’s fuel tax revenue was cut by $2.6 billion due to the growing amount of EVs on the roads, the IEA said.
  • More “giant battery gigafactories” needed: with demand for batteries predicted to increase by a factor of 15 by 2030 – largely driven by light-duty vehicles – more battery productions plants must be build to keep up. Example: Elon Musk’s 4.9 million square-foot Gigafactory undergoing construction in Nevada, which will produce 35 gigawatt-hours of batteries.
  • Buses are going electric: according to the IEA’s prediction, there will be 1.5 million electric buses globally by 2030, up from 370,000 in 2017. Last year, 99 percent of electrified buses were sold in China last year, with Shenzhen leading the pack with an all-electric fleet.
  • Increased demand for cobalt and lithium: cobalt and lithium are key ingredients in the rechargeable batteries used in EVs, as well as in cell phones and laptops. Demand could rise “tenfold,” but “technological advances and adjustments to battery chemistry could also significantly reduce this,” according to Bloomberg. Currently, about 60 percent of cobalt is mined in the Democratic Republic of Congo, which uses child labor; battery-makers are under pressure to prove their products are acquired and created in a sustainable, moral way, which could lead to a shift from cobalt-heavy batteries.

About the Author:

Dave Martinson is a broadcast journalist for DrivingSalesNews. He has a background as a TV News Reporter, Anchor and Producer. He has also worked in Digital Marketing and Human Resources. He received his bachelor’s degree in Communication from Brigham Young University – Idaho. He’s married and originally from the state of Washington. He’s a huge football fan and enjoys the outdoors.