2017 is off to an interesting start as potential disruptor Faraday Future at CES revealed their flagship electric car, the FF 91.  Faraday joins Tesla, Elio and others with an eye to toward the future.  Not only are these vehicles attempting to improve efficiencies through improved mileage or alternative energy, but they are also conducting business through new channels.  While ahead to car buying in 2017 with our three-part series we have already asked our panel of auto experts about obstacles to car buying and the first stop for car shoppers.  Today our question is a bit more forward looking ?

Vinadvisor CEO Jim Dykstra still thinks the status quo is too strong:

Dealers. Tesla is a red herring, to achieve scale capital constraints will require franchised dealers. The bigger question is who will make online car buying easy.

That is a great point.  Is is about the place you buy a car or making the path to purchase easier?  Here is what our experts had to say.

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Ian Beavis
Chief Strategy Officer
AMCI Global
Everyone will be selling online in 10 years. You should know that 93% of used car buyers will not buy a car without first driving it so 100% online has its challenges.

James Green
CEO
Magnetic
Mostly I think that car buying will diminish dramatically over the next 10 years as autonomous vehicles and ride sharing apps eat the world. Already where I live (NYC) vanishingly few young people own cars. They, Zip, Uber and Lyft everywhere. Once cars are self driving the economics of ownership will diminish further. In that environment, the biggest sellers of cars will be manufacturers and tech companies. Tesla has led the way and although traditional brands are entrenched in the dealership model, cars will go the way of everything else: sure, you can buy an Apple computer from a reseller, but mostly they are bought in owned and operated stores or online. So shall it be with cars.

Chris Baccus
SVP
Caruso Affiliated
Dealerships. If someone asked me this question 20 years ago, I would've said someone other than dealerships, but there is a strength dealerships have that people often overlook. They are the place you go to service your vehicle. It's the place to test drive. It's the place to experience the brand. They play an important role. It's not like buying a book online.

Philip Zelinger
President, CEO
Ad Agency Online, LLC
Today's first choice sites for online car shopping, such as AutoTrader, Edmunds, etc., will soon shift to next generation offerings from Amazon, Google and probably Facebook as they capitalize on their extensive customer base and search engine data enabling them to direct consumer shopping habits.
After all, what are friends for.

Nick Huie
National Manager
Toyota North America
The answer is yet to be determined, but if you look at the current regulatory environment, history of the US automotive retail sector, and consolidation of dealerships you would have to believe that some of the large dealer groups have the resources and strategic foresight to shift vehicle purchases online or at least partner with a technology company that can facilitate it. OEMs may also play a large role, but it may ultimately be determined by the large dealer groups because the fragmentation of "mom and pop" dealers may be too fragmented to coordinate.

Chad Pelliccioni
Founder
Hype Media Group
Amazon and similar sites.

Jill Ciminillo
Automotive Editor
Sinclair Media Group
That is a tough one. Ten years from now, I think everything might be sold online. But I will say that Asian automakers or newer car companies like Tesla seem to have the most flexible and fluid sales methods. Currently, automakers like Hyundai and Toyota have a leg up in online sales. Toyota first ventured into selling cars online with its Scion brand through the Pure Pricing Plus program, which gave buyers the opportunity to spec out a car and get a guaranteed price through the website. Hyundai is now following suit with its Ioniq “subscription” plan that it announced at the 2016 LA Auto Show. It’s starting out as a trial in California, and consumers can log on to the website, spec out an Ioniq EV and get all-in pricing that includes maintenance, dealer fees and charging. All the buyer has to do is go to the dealer and pick up the car.

Eric Miltsch
Co-Founder
DealerTeamwork.com & AutoOutletsUSA.com
Great question. I believe Tesla will be selling more cars online. Amazon should also be included as they recently introduced their own car buying research tool. The next logical progression is for Amazon to start selling vehicle online. Large dealer groups may also sell more online as significant industry consolidation is likely during the next 10 years. The solutions and technology used by the likes of Amazon, AutoNation or BHA may even be driven by acquisitions of other platforms such as Carvana or TrueCar.

Shiraz Ahmed
Reporter
Automotive News
Manufacturers

Joe Overby
Senior Editor
Auto Remarketing
Dealers. They certainly have the numbers (population-wise) and infrastructure in place. Plus, I don’t see states’ laws prohibiting direct-from-manufacturer r car sales being overturned anytime soon. Tesla’s success, however, is an interesting case. I think the tech companies have been fascinating to watch and they’re incredibly innovative. Some of the sharpest people I’ve ever interviewed. I just think with tens of thousands of car dealers, should they decide to ramp up online car sales, dealers have the sheer numbers.

Andrew Fails
Photographer/writer
Jalopnik
Dealers will sell more, just because of the used car market, but it will be fewer traditional dealerships, and more things like Beepi, Carvana, Carzumer, etc. Not sure if you're considering those tech companies or dealerships. I called them dealerships because they still need a dealership license (I believe). I think Manufacturers will sell more new cars though.

Ed Brooks
Sr Digital Media Rep.
Cars.com
While Carvana has gotten off to an early lead in the race to sell cars online, I think, in ten years this will be much more commonplace with the big dealer groups embracing this wholeheartedly. So I would say look to AutoNation, CarMax, Berkshire Hathaway, Sonic, etc. to be in the lead in 10 years

Philip Reed
Writer
NerdWallet
It's amazing to consider how much retail has been changed by the internet and how little it has affected car buying. So, in 10 years there will probably be less change than we anticipate. But the manufacturers might have found a way to bypass dealers or at least let people shop online. If not, then the dealers might have found a way to finalize the sale online and deliver cars to people's homes or offices.

Nick Roshon
Nick's Car Blog
That's a great question, especially as Amazon has recently entered the car space and start-ups like Beepi are taking off, not to mention Tesla blazing their own path selling direct. Once autonomous cars became more mainstream, the need to test drive a car in person is less of a necessity as the average consumer thinks of cars more as an appliance. Enthusiasts will always prefer the in-person experience, but the average shopper will want to go online and have less stress, confrontation, and haggling. I think dealerships will continue their dominance though regardless of whether online or offline, both due to regulatory issues preventing manufacturers from selling direct in many cases, and their current foothold of the market means as technology solutions like Beepi grow and become a threat, dealership conglomerates like Autonation and Penske will buy these start-ups and integrate into their offering.

Craig Fitzgerald
NPR's Car Talk
The dealers, no question about it. You have to understand the lock dealers have on the retail automotive market. The National Auto Dealers Association is one of the largest trade groups in the country. In any given state, the NADA-supported state auto dealer associations are, too. They are fiercely protective of dealer franchise laws in those states.
Tesla has managed to circumvent the franchised dealer model a bit, but if it plans to ramp up to any kind of volume, it's really going to have no choice but to work within that model, instead of outside it.
The reason the dealer model worked from the get-go was because as powerful as the manufacturers were, there was no way to build the thousands of stores they needed at the local level.
That's still true today. Even the most successful volume manufacturer couldn't possibly invest in all the brick-and-mortar stores required to service the products they sell. Look at it this way: Home Depot has 2,275 stores in the US. GM alone has 4,355. There is simply no way GM has the financial wherewithal to run that many stores. I don't see that changing much in the next decade.

Ralph Paglia
ADMP
Dealers. 10 years may sound like a long time, but in the car business, where everything that happens today determines what is being sold next year on this day, it is not as far away as you may think. In answer to your question, as far as the USA goes there is an entrenched franchise based dealer distribution system that has taken 100 years to build and has many billions of dollar invested in its efficient and effective operation. Contrary to what some people may believe or hypothesize about, American consumers genuinely like and reward this very same franchised dealer distribution and retail system... They currently prove their satisfaction over 17 million times a year. So, my money and opinion is on the ever evolving, responsive and entrepreneurial American car dealer. Do dealers currently sell cars online? Yes, they do and the number is far greater than typical reports and sales charts reveal.
Manufacturers, less certain disruptive upstarts, are generally prohibited from competing with their franchised dealers in most states, so it wont be OEM's making the majority of sales in ten years.
Tech companies like to think they are smart enough to sell cars direct and bypass the franchised dealers system, but unless you consider Tesla a tech company, none of the current population of tech companies have demonstrated ANY ABILITY TO SELL CARS IN ANY WAY, SHAPE OR FORM. They may provide an entertaining and interesting distraction from the car people that actually do sell cars ten years from now... But, to sell more cars than the franchised dealer network? I highly doubt it.

Joe Webb
President
DealerKnows Consulting
There will be countless changes to automotive retail sales over the next decade. I can see ride-sharing programs cutting into vehicle ownership, as well as online transaction tools becoming even more commonplace. As time progresses, auto makers will focus on technological advancement to speed up (and in some cases only virtually connect) the customer's research, test drive, and purchase experience.

Bill Soule
Founder
Digital Video Syndicate
Online banks. It’s hard to see the franchise laws going away so I’ll go with a platform that enables a car shopper to view content, reviews, loan offers and send an offer to a dealer on their platform. I think the loan is the key element. Car dealers will take offers from anywhere, so why not BoFi or SoFi?

Neil Feuling
Senior Director - Auto E-commerce Strategy and Business Development
LeEco US
Fleet companies with the logistic capabilities (I include Uber, Hertz, Avis, Enterprise, National and other larger rental players here) to enable semi autonomous ev infrastructure) will play an outsized role in global car sales and it may or may not involve retail / consumer ownership / shared ownership / ride hailing and car sharing. CarMax will have a 360 evolution hiring top tech talent from silicon valley and will achieve astronomical growth with a portfolio business model approach to car sales with their strong brand trust to carry a ton of weight to achieve their goals.

Mark Dubis
CEO
Carfolks
Unless franchise laws change, auto dealers will still be selling the majority of new cars purchase online and in the traditional fashion. That being said they will be utilizing third party technology
that incorporates 3D and Virtual Reality technology to experience a more realistic “test drive” and experience all the telematics offered by next generation vehicles.

Ben Tesler
Founder
FairRose LA
I think the model Tesla uses will become the standard in the auto sales market. You don't need sales men at the dealership. People can go there but I think the car will come to you. You'll choose what you're looking for online and it will show up at your house for a test drive. Virtual Reality could even provide an experience with a virtual showroom. There's even a chance we won't be driving in 10 years as driverless cars get more and more popular.

lpsos Automotive
Only franchised dealers can “sell” new vehicles to consumers.
a. Dealers- there are very strict state franchise laws in the US that protect the rights of car dealers to sell new vehicles in their designated communities. These laws enforce the manufacturer “franchise agreements” that these dealers have with their various OEM’s. For these reasons, no new vehicles are sold “online”. Vehicles can only be “sold” at dealerships ( within the majority of states). So you can see a new vehicle at an auto show or a mall display but the transaction to sale must be done at a physical dealership to comply with the majority of state laws. Aside from these facts, consumers benefit from taking possession at a dealership because of the assistance dealers provide to educate buyers on the operation and capabilities of their new vehicle. Tech features on new vehicles alone require assistance from professionals so customers can enjoy all the benefits their new vehicle provides.
b. Manufacturers – OEM’s will continue to send new vehicle “leads” to dealerships from their websites and other promotional activities so dealerships can assist customers directly with the sale and servicing of their new vehicle.
c. Tech companies -must comply with state franchise laws or challenge them like Tesla has done with their “showroom” concepts. This will probably become a larger issue if more tech companies decide to first, sell new vehicles and secondly, utilize a direct to consumer model and be willing to spend the money to challenge existing franchise laws in court. Existing dealer franchise laws in a lot of states are very strong and will take significant efforts to challenge them. Remember that local dealerships are very often the largest tax payers and among the top employers in their communities and have been for many years.
For a tech company to acquire a “franchise agreement” from an OEM, they would have to build a bricks and mortar facility including sales, service, parts and used vehicles. Tech companies may not want to make these physical investments across the country to be able to provide their buyers with access to service nationwide without the assistance of a dealer body. Tesla does not the level of national support that other OEM’s can provide to their customers. There are additional costs to Tesla owners who do not live in close proximity to a Tesla showroom for servicing their vehicle.

Ricky Patrick
BDC Manager
Richard Kay Superstore
Dealers. Specifically dealers who have embraced transparency and are currently developing a positive online reputation.

Maddy Low
Community Manager
DrivingSales
I think dealers will still be selling the most cars in 10 years.

Kyle Reyes
Founder
The Silent Partner Marketing
I believe it will still be dealers - albeit fewer of them. It'll be dealers because there's still going to be a tremendous value proposition of relationships and relationship marketing MERGED with convenience.

Scott Meyer
9clouds
Dealers will still sell the most in quantity because they have the law protecting them. Also, tech companies will increase the percentage of vehicles in the market, but they might sell direct (online) or use existing dealer networks.

Matt Stoffel
9clouds
Honestly, it's impossible to know right now. We're seeing Amazon in the early stages of selling cars online, and as driverless cars transform the way we look at transportation we can expect more changes. The safest bet is that customers will buy vehicles from whoever makes the process easy for them. People don't often have a favorable opinion of dealerships, and they like shopping online. But the successful dealerships are actively working to overcome stigmas and shortcomings while modifying their models to suit changing market demands.

Quincy Armstrong
Director of Marketing
Rusnak Auto Group
Really depends on the brand. Some mass-market brands the transaction might be almost 100% online, but for a Porsche customer for example, a majority are still going to want to experience the car and have a personalized buying experience that connects them to the Porsche community.

Kurt Stephan
Dealer Marketing Magazine
In 10 years, I expect the traditional dealer model to still be predominant, even for online vehicle sales. Both the OEMs and progressive dealers have been key early adopters in technology, and combined with them having established, proven brands plus a many-decade head start in marketing and selling cars, I expect they will remain the primary buying source for consumers, even a decade down the road.

Josh Crouch
Quora
Excellent question- here is what will happen. Companies will pop up that offer “more convenient” selling solutions but manufactures will always keep new car dealers in business- So yes dealerships will always outsell internet companies. Now here is what the car dealers will do- (or at least the ones that want to stay at the top of their market). They will adopt some of the principals of the “convenient internet companies” - you will literally be able to purchase a vehicle from your home from a new car dealer- from A-Z without leaving your home or office in the next 2–4 years. It will be a VIP experience for the regular consumer. From going to the dealers website- selecting your sales rep, then selecting the vehicle, selecting date time and location for the vehicle to be delivered to you for a test drive - then finally E signing all of your documents you will be able to do from home… now depending on how they can verify your identity you might have to visit the store to sign your final documents but 99% of the process can and will be done from outside of the store. It will become the standard here soon.