Yesterday I participated in an Automotive News webinar with Tom Kontos, the Economist from Adesa Auto Auction. This seminar can be purchased and downloaded from the Automotive News website. I think that you would find it informative and instructive. I have a few thoughts from the seminar that I’d like to share.
First, I concur with Tom Kontos’ prognosis that dealers will experience further tightening of used vehicle supplies in the coming year. Further, prices will continue to be strong. Obviously there will be some ebbs and flows throughout the year in specific segments based on fleet and lease maturities. There are also always risks of the unknown based on volatile factors such as oil prices, weather patterns and similar phenomenon’s. Further tightening of supply and continuing high wholesale prices will create stress for dealers in two respects. First, they will find it difficult to purchase vehicles for prices that allow for a traditional profit margin. This is because I don’t expect retail rates to rise equally with the wholesale increases. Banks are ever conscious of their LTV advances. So what does this mean for wholesale buyers of used cars?
It means that many buyers will return from auction without purchasing vehicles that they badly need. Their conclusion will be that prices are too high to make any money. This is largely based on their expectations of buying vehicles for prices that allow them to make traditional gross profits in addition to a traditional pack.
Alternatively, other dealers will buy vehicles and be wiling to accept less than traditional profit margins and perhaps less, if any dealer packs. While this alternative isn’t ideal, it does address the realities of the moment of the market. After all, what are your choices? Either you don’t buy, which I think will ultimately starve your operations for badly needed variable and fixed gross profit, or you buy with a willingness to temporarily accept lower margins. If this alternative strategy is adopted along with a high turn velocity mentality, it is possible to reclaim the loss margin through additional volume.
I don’t however, want to be casual about the statement that volume alone can compensate for lost margin. The difference between volume and velocity are three conditions that must be present in order to have volume with the prospect of profitability. So what are these conditions?
First, you have to have the ability to identify and source the right vehicles. Today, the right vehicles are not necessarily the vehicles of your new franchise brand or the ones that have performed well in the past. Such vehicles may no longer be right for today’s market and/or they may not be available for purchase at the right price. Rather, the right vehicles are the ones that your current market is craving with high demand and short supply (i.e. low market day’s supply). The marketing cost to attract buyers on such vehicles is much lower and these vehicles are much less sensitive to price competition pressure.
The second condition is to price vehicles properly. As I’ve stated many times in the past, this doesn’t mean all high or low, but “know” which ones can and should be priced high and dropped slowly if necessary and which ones should be priced low and dropped rapidly. Your ability to know depends on a physical assessment of the vehicle as well as its replaceability and its supply and demand. Simply stated, cars with high supply and low demand need to be priced aggressively from the start, while cars that have high demand and short supply will command generous gross profits without too much hindrance from competitive offerings.
The third necessary velocity condition is to own your vehicles right. You’ll never make any money in the used car business unless you own your cars right, and you can’t manage your cost of ownership unless you measure it. Today, dealers should not own their vehicles fully reconditioned for any more than 85% of cost to market (unit cost divided by average retail market asking price).
The next observation from yesterday’s seminar is that you must know the price at which you can sell a car in order to know how much to pay for it. In yesterday’s used car business the retail price was determined largely from the wholesale price, and today the retail price drives a proper wholesale valuation. If you know (and you should) what it will take to sell a car, simply back out your cost and your expected profit, and that represents the proper target acquisition price. If you have to pay over that amount to acquire the vehicle, then you must be prepared to accept less profit, otherwise don’t pull the trigger.
During yesterday’s call, someone asked whether recent events have caused me to reconsider this position on purchasing vehicles. The answer is absolutely not, and in fact I would like to hear from the individual that asked the question. I don’t know what recent conditions they’re referring to that may have caused me to reconsider.
The bottom line is that next year will be a challenging year from the standpoint of purchasing, valuing and pricing vehicles. I would strongly recommend that your dealership invest in technology and develop processes to ensure that the velocity conditions are created and maintained. If management is successful in creating the conditions favored by the market, then success becomes a natural and predictable outcome.
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There is an article posted on my blog dalepollak.com from November 12 entitled, “What the best of the best do when they make a mistake.” This post profiles the shared experience of two of the best used car operators I know, John Chalfant of Edmark Superstore, Idaho and Roy Greenblatt of Matt Blatt Dealerships, New Jersey.
Each of these operators tells the story of how their used car inventory and operational results have suffered in the third quarter of 2009. Chalfant and Greenblatt both expected to continue their big sales volumes through the end of the year, not withstanding the historical slowdown that generally occurs. Both of them acknowledged having made a mistake, finding themselves with more inventory than they needed to maintain their usually 15 to 18 annual turn rate. To their credit, they both pursued an aggressive strategy to “come clean” by quickly reducing their overstock of vehicles at the expense of gross profit.
Their decision to dump excess inventory rather than to hang on with the hopes of the New Year producing rebounds in values and volume stands in stark contrast to the approach taken by most traditional dealers. Chalfant’s and Greenblatt’s quick liquidation with little regard for current profit will allow them to free up the necessary capital to reinvest in fresh inventory in the remaining weeks of the year. This fresh inventory will undoubtedly be purchased at seasonal lows and will position them to recapture lost profits in the first quarter of 2010 while their traditional counterparts will still be stuck with the higher cost inventory from the summer and fall.
This “coming clean” strategy is counter to every instinct of a traditional dealer. To “come clean” as these two velocity dealers have done forces them to produce monthly financial statements that show exceptionally low gross profits. Most dealers would rather maintain their respectable average, albeit selling many fewer units. What these traditional dealers do not confront is the negative equity that is accumulating. Because automotive accounting does not require assets on dealers’ balance sheets to be marked down to their true market value, the cost of hanging on to the inventory doesn’t immediately evidence itself.
Even if market values rebound in the first quarter of 2010, these traditional dealers will find themselves competing against guys like Chalfant and Greenblatt that took their medicine early, replenished inventory at lower cost, and ultimately can dominant their competitors with vehicles at more competitive prices and healthy average profits.
It’s also time for me to “come clean” and acknowledge that Chalfant’s, Greenblatt’s and other velocity dealers similar experiences were inevitable. The extraordinary sales and profit performance commonly experienced by velocity dealers can sometimes produce an intoxicating perception of invincibility. In hindsight, what Chalfant and Greenblatt should have done would have been to forecast on a seasonally adjusted basis as do sophisticated new car manufacturers. The velocity strategy will undoubtedly enhance the performance of any dealer in any economic environment—however, the macro environment does define the boundaries of opportunity.
Now it’s your turn to “come clean.” The test is the trend of your used vehicle aging. Most dealers, to the extent that they are measuring this, are reporting an increase in the average age of their vehicles. If this is occurring at your dealership, it’s a tell-tale sign that you are hanging on rather than proactively taking charge and looking ahead. Although this strategy avoids immediately confronting the errors and pains of your forecast, it will undoubtedly produce a penalty in the months to come. The penalty will be the slow and low profit bail-out of your inventory in early 2010 while the velocity competitor is jumping out to an insurmountable advantage.
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Today’s used car business is varied and complex. What you have to do in order to be successful spans a wide range of skills from traditional lot management to virtual marketing. It is unreasonable to expect success to occur by simply working harder and faster. Rather, specific conditions must exist for success. So what are these conditions?
The first set of conditions are called “paint metrics”. Paint metrics refer to the more traditional physical side of used car management. Today’s paint metrics, however, are new ones that most dealerships do not understand or use.
The first paint metric is the market day’s supply of the vehicle and to know it before you determine whether you want to own it, how much to pay and how to price it. The relationship of the vehicle’s supply and demand in your live market is a powerful predictor of how fast it will sell, and how much gross it will generate. Dealers understand how this supply and demand dynamic works on their new car lot, but very few appreciate its effect in managing the used car operation.
Second, vehicles need to be priced properly. This does not mean all of them be priced high, or low, but rather to know which ones can and will bring premium prices, and which ones will not. This is accomplished by assessing the vehicle’s physical qualities and knowing the odds of fast turn and high gross determined by the time tested principle of supply and demand. For example, it is virtually impossible to achieve fast turn and high gross on a vehicle that has huge supply and little demand.
The third critical paint metric is managing your cost of inventory. It’s always been true and will continue to be the case that you can not make any money with used cars unless you own them right. This means that you must have a consistent and objective tool for cost management. The cost to market metric, which compares your unit cost with the vehicle’s average retail selling price is the best metric for determining how right you own the vehicle.
In order to expect to have success in today’s efficient market, you must have vehicles that have low market day’s supply, priced right and owned properly. The only way to achieve these conditions is to manage with the new paint metrics of market day’s supply, price to market and cost to market.
The second condition set that must exist in order to achieve success in used car operations is a high degree of pixel proficiency in virtual marketing. The category of virtual marketing that dealerships are most familiar with is on-line classified sites, such as AutoTrader and Cars.com. Although a great deal of money is spent on these sites, few dealers really understand the dynamics of what makes them perform.
The first key pixel performance measurement is the number of search result pages (SRPs). SRPs are the virtual equivalent of drive-by traffic.
The second key metric is the number of vehicle detailed page views (VDPs). This is the virtual equivalent of how many people came in off the street and said “I want to take a closer look at that one”. Again, most dealerships don’t have any idea of how many times this key behavior occurs each day, week or month on the third-party sites that they pay to advertise on. It has been proven that there is a mathematical correlation between the number of times that an on-line shopper views the detail page of your vehicle and the number of shoppers that physically show up at your dealership.
Third, the conversion ratio of SRPs into VDPs is an important indicator of your dealership’s proficiency in on-line marketing. Without an ability to control these key basic virtual marketing conditions, success may be elusive for any dealer.
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Thanks to the leadership of Nancy Pollak, Krista Lyons, Michelle Black and Susan Taft, yesterday our company kicked off its green initiative. We’re on a path to achieve our Earth Flag.
To this end, we have undertaken an aggressive initiative of conservation and sustainability. We’re in the process of transitioning all of our cleaning chemicals to ones that are eco friendly, eliminating non-recyclable products and embarking on a significant energy and water conservation program.
This initiative reflects the commitment of our company and associates to give back to our community and earth. We’re all extremely blessed with abundance, and we all vow not to take it for granted.
I would be interested in hearing about ideas and methods that anyone else may be using to be better stewards of the environment.
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On October 20th I posted Incoming wake up call. In this posting I spoke about dealer Keith Kocourek's impressive jump in used car market penetration relative to his competition.Just in case anyone thinks that improvement happens by accident, below I am posting another communication that I received from Kocourek yesterday. In Kocourek's latest note he celebrates the success of achieving 10,000 VDPs from his AutoTrader investment. Today, most dealerships don't know what a VDP is, or have any clue as to whether they should get 10, 10,000 or 10,000,000 per month. The fact that Kocourek is celebrating this achievement suggests that he is in control and command of the conditions that lead to online success. He knows what most dealers do not, and he's benefiting from his knowledge and control of the variables that really drive performance improvement.
I've come to understand that in the increased complexity of the used car business there are a multitude of new things that matter, many of which are outside of the scope of current management attention, for example SRPs and VDPs. OK, for a simple 101 lesson on SRPs and VDPs. SRP stands for Search Results Page and VDP stands for Vehicle Detail Page. When a shopper on a classified advertising site views a page of inventory resulting from a search, and your vehicle is on one of those pages, it constitutes an SRP. If they find your vehicle so compelling so as to click on it for more details, that counts for a vehicle detail page, VDP.
Why does this matter? Because an SRP is the virtual equivalent of a shopper driving by your dealership and a VDP is the virtual equivalent of somebody coming in off that street and saying, "I want to take a closer look at that car." Can you imagine running your dealership without knowledge of the drive by's or walk-ins? Well, if you don't know SRPs and VDPs you're missing the virtual equivalent of these two critical pieces of information.
Kocourek knows that just as there is a mathematical correlation between the number of walk-ins and the number of vehicles sold, there is also a mathematical correlation between how many SRPs convert to VDPs. Further, Kocourek knows that there are five factors that drive SRPs, four of them in his control. So stop and think about Kocourek's improvement. He's driving success by controlling variables of which most dealerships are completely unaware.
Take a few moments and read the exchange between Kocourek and me below. Take note of his reference to "Dwayne" and "Digital Debbie". These are not actual names of individuals, but rather names that velocity dealers have coined for individuals tasked with specific new functions and responsibilities. In other words the "Dwayne" and "Digital Debbie" positions have well defined and consistent job descriptions, responsibilities and performance measurements. A so-called "Dwayne" or "Digital Debbie" can pickup and move from one velocity store to another without skipping a beat. It is this type of standard discipline and measurement that I am passionate about implementing in velocity minded dealerships around the country.
Congratulations to Kocourek, his managers, AutoTrader and his AutoTrader rep for driving to the critical performance of achieving 10,000 VDPs!
Dale - Huge, Huge, Huge jump in VDP's this month, we are tracking for over 10,000 for the first time ever.....Almost hard to believe. Keith
Keith - This is an amazing performance given the size of your market. Dale
Dale - The early model listings just started on Friday. I will keep you up to date on how that works. We are working to become VDP masters. We are starting videos w/cheese at the Ford store. We will track the results against the Chevrolet store using Liquid auto.
I am meeting with our GM's tomorrow to put a process in place to hire Digital Debbie and streamline Dwayne’s responsibilities in all four stores. We are planning on making one person responsible for all four stores in both of those positions......That makes it really, really cheap. Keith
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